Process
How we get to a pick.
No black box, no mystique. Here’s the actual process, and what you can hold us to.
Step one
Find the disagreement
A bet is only worth making when our number differs from the market’s. We start from the line, not from a team we like — screening schedules, rest, travel, injury reports, and situational spots for places where the posted number looks wrong.
Step two
Test it against the case
Anything that survives the screen gets argued the other way. If the counter-argument holds up, there’s no edge and we pass. Most candidates die here, which is the point.
Step three
Size it honestly
Every play is published with a unit stake. A one-unit play and a three-unit play are different levels of confidence and we say which is which up front, rather than claiming every pick was a lock afterwards.
Step four
Publish, then grade
The pick goes out before the game with the number we took and the full write-up. Once it settles it’s graded and rolls into the running record automatically. Losses stay up.
Accountability
What you can hold us to
The record on this site is generated from the picks themselves, not typed in by hand. Every grade is timestamped and logged. Nothing is edited after a game starts.
3 – 1 – 1
Won Lost Push
75.0%
Win rate
+1.73
Units
+34.6%
ROI
5
Settled
Win rate is calculated as wins divided by wins plus losses. Pushes and voids are excluded.